please be aware that the British parliament will hold a vote on a draft withdrawal agreement with the EU on 11/12/2018, which may trigger abnormal market conditions, including but not limited to:
• extreme market volatility;
• low market liquidity;
• increased spreads;
• price gaps;
• slippage on executed orders.
It should also be noted that as the vote will take place after five days of parliamentary debate, there is a high possibility of increased volatility starting from 04/12/2018, which is very likely to affect GBP currency pairs.
In light of this, for the next two weeks GBPUSD trading will be suspended.
It will normally resume on Monday, December 17, 2018.
I agree sensible move to hold off on trading this pair . Thanks for the update Andrea
Amazing! this is safe trading! Thank you Andrea.
what will u do with the position 1.2997 sell eurusd?
I let it run, if it is not closed within a month I will close it manually.
No recovery trade for this position?
the recovery trade is set around 180- 200 pips.
Why it takes so long before whe get a recovery trade? It was already on -180 pips.
No recovery trade this time?
Why is there no recoveryt rade for this position? It is usual that there will be a recovery trade. This can cause a big loss.
the recovery trade is set around 180- 200 pips.
Why it takes this time so long before whe get a recovery trade? The position was already on a certain moment -180 pips. You write that if it is not closed within a month that the position will be closed. Do you mean 31 January? Is it because whe have now Christmas and New Year Eve? I hope you can contineu the normal pattern. There should be a recovery trade. I am just a littlebit worried
in my backtest the max open time is about 24 days.
If this trade remain open more than one month, my idea is to close it manually.
However, before deciding, we are going to see developments in the coming days.
Hello, I am worried about today’s trading of GBPUSD (I have Turtle EUR PAMM account)… 🙁 It’s -7.1 % at the moment. What is your opinion? Is it possible to quit from this trade with no loss? I hope. I’ve never seen so big loose on your Turtle EUR account yet… 🙁 Moreover you have started the recovery trade…
Good luck! Gabor
sorry but this is how the strategy works.
We must wait the retrace, actually we are about 6.5% drawdown, this is not the first time and this will not be the last.
Very interesting and rare situation. I am not worried, similar things happened before (although only once or twice since I remember) and it always ended up well. I have no reason to suspect this time will be any different. But we might need to wait…
unfortunately, as you rightly said, we just have to wait for the signal to retrace and both operations to close in profit.
Up to 10% drawdown… this might be a harder test for follower with multiplier higher than 1.
yes it is correct.
I always recommend to setup the multiplier = 1, the same risk level as Turtle.
Does the strategy include a third trade?
I could think of adding a third trade, but for now Turtle EUR has only used two trades and I would like it to continue like this.
Andrea, I can’t find the Post, but I remember, that you posted some weeks ago, that you changed some settings, which will increase the number of trades in GBPUSD-Pair.
I know you can change the Recovery-Settings, AutoMM and Number of simultaneous trades, but not the opening/closing behaviour of the EA itself.
So what did you change?
nothing has changed at all, the strategy is always the same.
Any small changes in the settings do not affect the strategy.
Also the signal of programmers of the Expert Advisor https://www.myfxbook.com/members/forexwallstreet/wallstreet-recovery-pro-20-evolution/1934826, has the same open operations.
Unfortunately, it is a bad period, perhaps also associated with Brexit.
You have to be patient and wait for the chart to go down, the drawdown may even be greater than it is now, so I have always recommended not to increase the level of risk.
Yes, and also because brokers could decide lowering the leverage in such market conditions and so putting underfunded accounts for the settled risk in more danger. This could happen starting from next Monday.
am I right in saying this is the longest time so far a recovery trade has been opened for?
yes you’re right.
This is the longest recovery trade in the real history of Turtle EUR.
However, in the backtests, the maximum duration was 28 days.
Unfortunately, also thanks to Brexit, this is a bad period and it takes patience and wait for the graph to start to go down.
May I know which recovery trade in the backtest lasted 28 days? I would like to do some analysis. Thank you.
24 days duration, watch here: https://www.myfxbook.com/strategies/turtle-eur-gbpusd/153693
Initial trade 18.12.2017, recovery trade 29.12.2017
Dont understand me wrong. I did not want to blame the actual period on any changes of you.
I asked totally independent. Maybe this Thread is not the right one for that question.
In order to understand your methodolgy, could the initial trade become positive instead of the the recovery trade?
Could this system work this way as well or only works in positive for the last opened trade (recovery one)?
the initial trade always closes in loss, the recovery trade always closes in profit.
The difference between the two will be a slight gain in monetary terms.
The difference in terms of pips will be at a loss, because the recovery trade opens with a larger lot.
Look here : https://www.myfxbook.com/strategies/turtle-eur-gbpusd/153693
Search for Initial trade 18.12.2017, recovery trade 29.12.2017
I’ve been following your signal for more than a year that I have much confident to multiply by3. My question now is, right now it’s down about 40% and I’m planing what should I do if something happens with the UK Brexit tomorrow that might make it even worst. Do you think if you were me, would you put more money in the broker if I get a margin call ? Or do you think tomorrow won’t effect anything that much ? Thank you.
Ps. I’ll put the multipler back to 1 after all of this is dealt.
yes, a multiplier = 3 is very risky, better to put it at 1 as I have always suggested doing.
Honestly I do not know how it will end with the Brexit, there is a lot of uncertainty.
I am confident that the level of GBP which has now increased quite a lot must go down in the next few days.
You can always nearly calculate the close price nearly yourself.
Initial Trade Lotsize 1.09, open price 1.2585,9
Recovery Trade: Lotsize 4.36 (4 times bigger), open price 1.2734,1 (nearly 150 pips higher resp. ‘later’)
How to recover? Both trades run into the initially planed direction, both recover the drawdown proportionally (trade 1 with 20%, Trade 2 with 80%, ratio 1:4)
150 pips / 5= 30 pips, which means that 30 pips lower than the open price of the recovery trade (about 1.2704,1) the drawdown will be compensated by both trades. Initial trade is -120 pips in loss, RecTrade will be 30 pips in win.
That’s how it’s set up now. Earlier (12th Oct 2017 for example) Andreas had a ratio of 1:7 for recovery trade. But this way now, it’s safer, because closer to the settings of the EA, that he uses.
thank you for your explanation.
It’s much better than mine.
Hi Andrea…….I am currently with you in the GBP/USD position in which you have a significant recovery trade 5.8. I have $50k in this should I be concerned? What is your plan with this one. Just a bit worried at the moment.
Be grateful if could give us an update please?
we must now wait for tonight’s vote in the British Parliament.
Afterwards, if the signal does not retrace and the drawdown continues to increase, I could also make the decision to manually close the two open trades.
Well, while the Opening / Closing-Behaviour of the Initial Trade of the EA is genius (90% success rate) and I really would like to know, what the strategy behind it is.
But the Recovery-Method seems quite simple:
After every longer trend of about 150/180 pips, a consolidation of a third or a quarter of that range is assumed. So a position, 3 or 4 times bigger than the initial one, is opened to wait for that consolidation and compensate drawdowns.
I wonder if the strategy is designed to handle trends that are bigger than 150/180 pips, for example as the one now. Or was it only luck in the past?
However, let’s hope i t will work again.
I am going to reduce my multipliers after this, too. Provided that my accounts survive.
unfortunately compared to the past there is the Brexit problem that has made the GBPUSD much more volatile and unpredictable.
If we can close this situation without too much damage, please, as I have always recommended, use the same level of risk as Turtle EUR.
How far are you orientating on the original signal provider?
see how they behave can be useful, for example, seeing that their operations are similar to mine, I can say that there were no technical problems.
If they close early or open an additional operation, it can be useful for me to make a decision.
Well done again, Andrea! 🙂 Good job (Turtle EUR Pamm). Thank you for your patience and proficience. It was a long and very hard trade (GBPUSD)… And a calm came over me because of it’s over 🙂 . Have a nice rest and I wish you much success.
Hello and thanks,
given that this last trade has been particularly difficult, I recommend you to use the same level of risk as Turtle EUR.
Yes, Sir! 😉
I think it stays interesting, not directly for our money, but for the EA.
Turtle entered GBPUSD Sell 3rd of Jan at 1.2586 and could escape the increased price (up to 1.2898) with the recovery trade during a very short fall down to about 1.2700.
The EA behind Turtle, Wallstreet Recovery opened the initial position earlier that day (due to spread or what else), at 1.254, a little lower. For that trade, the fall down to 1,2700 did not suffice to recover, it stayed open.
The price increased again, in the meantime almost 1.3000 were reached, the initial trade is about 400 pips negative, the recovery trade 200 pips. This is a big range to bridge over which could take a long time. A long time in that many things can happen (USD-Shutdown at the moment, GBP-Brexit upcoming).
Turtle could reach dry land, fortunately. I keep my fingers crossed that wallstreet recovery also can do so.
How do you, Andrea, how do you other guys think about GBPUSD and the Drawdown of Wallstreet Recovery?
The EA has, only regarding GBPUSD (Sell) an actual DD of 27%. Taking EURUSD also into account, its a DD of 31%, but the Pound is, what causes sorrows to me.
on Tuesday 29.1. will be another voting about Brexit in british parliament. There will be voting about final decision about plan B by Mrs. May.
I stopped trading GBP/USD at least until Wednesday.
At the moment I do not have many alternatives, I could close the GBPUSD pair, but to stay only with EURUSD would have very poor results.
I am currently conducting some other backtests on other pairs too, and if they are satisfactory I will consider whether to replace GBPUSD with another pair.
Hi, do you have any recommendation is it better to follow you on MyFxBook (autotrade) or SignalStart? What gives better performance regarding the slippage and other factors?
Some users are not satisfied with myfxbook due to high slippage.
With signalstart instead you can use your favorite broker and pay a fixed fee per month of $50.
You can start with myfxbook and a demo account for a month, so you can see which system is cheaper.
I read on your website that the draw down is -15,82%. I do not understand this because in January whe had a floating draw down of -30%.
myfxbook and mql5 use two different systems for calculating the drawdown.
On myfxbook it is 15% while on mql5 it is 32%
The old post of this user “Luca” explains this difference, I report what he wrote:
“I think this solves the issue (copied from mql5 statistics for Turtle EUR):
By Balance: 6.56% (286.07 EUR)
By Equity: 32.78% (1 436.37 EUR)
Myfxbook quotes DD by balance and mql5 by equity. But DD by balance is what really matters, since this parameter tells about the amount of risk involved. DD by equity is about floating volatility, which is of lesser interest, imho.”
The real development of the equity is often not visible. This is very dangerous!
Myfxbook only creates a data point, if the balance changes, due to trades, deposits or withdrawls. That’s my observation. Turtle pauses further trading, if there already is an open trade with recovery trade. Seen in the past, a equity drawdown phase with a recovery trade can last several weeks and reach amounts up to -20 %. If there is no changing of the balance (because trading waits for the phase to be finished) until the end of this phase, the equity drawdown and its dimension can not be seen in the chart afterwards.
That is what leads people to use a high multiplier. They only see, that the balance increased continously, but not HOW that happened and with what risks.
Of course, Balance DD is important and if the Balance DD is bad, we don’t have to consider Equity DD.
But to undersstand, how a signal works, and what risks have to be accepted, Equity DD is important, too.
It’s quite calm on the Turtle Server, although Wallstreet Recovery is trading actually.
Did you deactivate trading?
no the strategy is working properly.
With my setup I have less trade but I think, more safer.
If you take a look at Wallstreet Recovery PRO original signal, you can notice that there are also some recovery trades opened.
I want to avoid it if possible.
Also lately, when there is news on Brexit, I temporarily disable the GBPUSD pair.
Sorry, but I prefer it this way rather than taking excessive risks.