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32 Comments

  1. Darius Darius

    Ciao Andrea,

    What is the best type of account to open in order to follow your strategy? STP or ECN?
    Initial investment abt eur 2000/3000
    Thanks

    Darius

    • Andrea Lanza Andrea Lanza

      Hello,
      I think ECN is better, use this type of account if you can.
      2000/3000 will be fine to start.

      Regards
      Andrea Lanza

  2. Mario Mario

    Hi Andrea.
    First of all thank you for your rational approach on trading and your constant updates for us.
    I would like to ask you if the backtests are performed with Alpari own historical data or with Metaquotes’ ones or others, because we can see that in 2016, 2017 and 2018 the live results are much better than the simulated ones.
    Thanks for your clarifications.
    Regards,
    Mario

    • Andrea Lanza Andrea Lanza

      Hello,
      all backtest are made with Alpari RU history database.
      The result may be different because I try to constantly watch the open trades and in some cases I manually close the open trades.
      Another reason can be difference in spread and also the commission which, in the backtests, is not calculated.

      Regards
      Andrea Lanza

  3. Sergio Sergio

    Ciao Andrea,

    Thanks for sharing. Lately, there has been a little bit more of volatiliy in the GBPUSD due to all the news that appears in the media regarding the Brexit.

    In a couple of months, there are some important key dates that will decide the future of how the Brexit is put in practice.

    Are you planning to close the GBPUSD EA close to that dates?

    Thanks.

    • Andrea Lanza Andrea Lanza

      Hello,
      the strategy does not take news into account.
      Generally I rely on the news coming from my broker, when there are news about high volatility then, for that period, I manually interrupt the trading operations.

      Regards
      Andrea Lanza

  4. Luca Luca

    Hi, thanks for sharing this. I’ve been following you for a long time, and always with a remarkable results. I just recently found out about this blog, well done.

    I have two questions, if you could answer it:

    1. Why didn’t you include earlier dates than 2009 in your backtests?

    2. If I follow you via signalstart or myfxbook autotrade, would you recommend me to use multiplier lager than 1.0? I was using 3.0 and 3.5, sometimes even larger… it was safe for now, but I want to hear your recommendation.

    • Andrea Lanza Andrea Lanza

      Hello,
      the 2009.02.09 is the first day where Alpari introduce the fifth decimal place in GBPUSD and EURUSD currency pair, that’s all.
      I also think that about 10 years of backtest are more than enough.
      I do not recommend to use multiplier larger than 1.0, if the Recovery Trade starts again (and sooner or later this will happen) you may not have enough margin if the recovery does not retrace quickly.
      If you want to use the multiplier, I recommend you have at least high leverage (Turtle EUR has a leverage of 1000) and verify also the max lot size permitted by your broker (the Recovery can starts with x4 multiplier lot size).

      Regards
      Andrea Lanza

      • Luca Luca

        Thanks for a quick response!

        I use IC Markets, leverage is 1:500, max lot size 1000. I have experienced several Recovery Trade in last year or so since I follow you, and it always ended up well (I used multiplier 3-6).

        Could you clarify one more thing for me? What is your maximal historical DD? On myfxbook it says 6.63%, but when I click on this field and take a look at the graph, maximum DD I can see is 2.73% (on Jan 12, 2017). On the other hand, reading this blog I saw someone said that it was actually around 32%. Which value is true?

        • Andrea Lanza Andrea Lanza

          Hello,
          yes there are big differences in drawdown value.
          Myfxbook says 6.63% and MQL5 says 32.8%. I don’t understand why and I must clarify with support for both of them.
          Furthermore I found in my backtests a maximal drawdown of 27.23% for GBPUSD pair and 26.90% for EURUSD pair.

          Regards
          Andrea Lanza

          • Luca Luca

            I understand there is inconsistency between myfxbook reading, myfxbook graph and mql5… but what is you real historical DD in the last two years since you are live trading? Do you have that information?

          • Luca Luca

            I think this solves the issue (copied from mql5 statistics for Turtle EUR):

            Relative drawdown:
            By Balance: 6.56% (286.07 EUR)
            By Equity: 32.78% (1 436.37 EUR)

            Myfxbook quotes DD by balance and mql5 by equity. But DD by balance is what really matters, since this parameter tells about the amount of risk involved. DD by equity is about floating volatility, which is of lesser interest, imho.

          • Andrea Lanza Andrea Lanza

            Hello,
            thank you for the clarification, you’ve been very helpful.

            Regards
            Andrea Lanza

  5. Stefan S. Stefan S.

    Didn’t you say, that 25% is the maximum (Equity) drawdown?
    I think this is essentially important for the choice of the Multiplier.
    Thx and kind regards

    • Andrea Lanza Andrea Lanza

      Hello,
      the 25% drawdown is referred to the maximum drawdown reached in 10 years of backtest.
      It happened only once and, I thought if it happened in reality, this value could be a kind of threshold exceeded which the operations would be closed manually in order to limit losses.
      Anyway, I always recommend Multiplier = 1 (same risk level as Turtle).

      Regards
      Andrea Lanza

      Regards
      Andrea Lanza

  6. Darius Darius

    Hello Andrea,

    Can you please clarify what do you mean by “recovery”? When was the first time it happened? Is it scalping which is used to recover losses or what is behind it?
    I have a small account of eur 2K bss leverage if 1:100 with multiplier of 2.0. Is it safe if the “recovery” starts?
    Appreciate your explanation. Thanks

    Brgds
    Darius

    • Andrea Lanza Andrea Lanza

      Hello,
      Turtle EUR don’t work like a normal strategy with a stoploss. When a stoploss is reached (about 150 pips loss) the strategy, instead of closing in loss, opens a recovery trade (the lot size is 3x or 4x higher than the initial trade).
      In this way, thanks to small movements in the right direction, trades are closed in overall profit.
      So, I don’t recommend to use a multiplier value too high, if the Recovery Trade is activated (and sooner or later this will happen) it can be risky if you do not have enough margin and the recovery trade does not retrace quickly.
      With multiplier set to 1 I think that the monthly gain will be about 2.5% – 3%
      If you want to be aggressive, eventually you can give yourself a monthly target to be reached in terms of earning and, once achieved, you could withdraw, so as not to increase your account too much.

      Regards
      Andrea Lanza

  7. Darius Darius

    Hi Andrea,

    Thanks for your explanation.
    When was the last time you faced the recovery trade and how many times this happened overall in the last 2+ years with Turtle? How long did it last the last time?
    Thanks

    Take care

    • Andrea Lanza Andrea Lanza

      Hello,
      the last Recovery happened on June on GBPUSD currency pair, the initial trade started at 06.01.2018 08:45, the RecTrade started at 06.06.2018 14:01 and the overall trades was closed at 06.07.2018 14:41
      The longest operation in the whole period of real trading lasted 7 days and 5 hours.
      The Recovery trades was 11 out of 505 trades, which represents 2.18%.

      Regards
      Andrea Lanza

  8. Hi Andrea,

    It is normal no trades since 06-09-2018? are you testing something new?

    Regards,

    • Andrea Lanza Andrea Lanza

      Hello,
      I’m sorry but the strategy is working properly.
      Sometimes the EA works more than once a day, sometimes once a week and sometimes nothing.
      Depends on the market conditions and I prefer it this way, it is better to do less trades than to risk to have an excessive number of recovery trades.

      Regards
      Andrea Lanza

  9. Mac Stef Mac Stef

    You do right, Andrea!
    Better many years with 2,5% per month than 5% per month but a crash each year.

    • Andrea Lanza Andrea Lanza

      Hello,
      thank you for your patience.
      This is how the strategy works.

      Regards
      Andrea Lanza

  10. Mario Mario

    Andrea,
    To avoid recovery trades in GBPUSD ( like the current one) can I humbly suggest that until closure of the Brexit issue trading in this pair is suspended. The GBP is too volatile and holding positions in it is very dangerous since anytime anyday there can be declarations or other news which moves the currency tens if not hundreds of pips in a matter of minutes. Thanks.
    Mario

  11. Mario Mario

    Andrea,
    Good morning. Allow me to humbly recommend that new trading in GBPUSD be suspended pending the settlement of the Brexit issue to avoid recovery trades (like the present one). The GBP is too volatile …..moving tens if not hindreds of pips in a matter of minutes every time some politician decides to make a Brexit related announcement.
    Also do you have a stop loss in mind in case GBPUSD keeps on falling.
    Thank you.
    Mario

    • Andrea Lanza Andrea Lanza

      Hello,
      my strategy is currently very conservative, in the sense that it opens few trades, just to prevent it being opened an excessive number of Recovery Trades.
      For this reason I can not always watch when news comes out, otherwise my engine will always be inactive.
      On top of that, the EURUSD pair is not very active, if you only have to rely on this pair, the operations would be a couple a month.

      Regards
      Andrea Lanza

  12. Darius Darius

    Hello Andrea,

    Would like to come back to RecTrade. What if once the RecTrade is opened with LOT size 3-4 times bigger compared to the initial one and the RecTrade goes not the right direction (the direction we need it to go)? What happens in that case? Understand there is still no stop loss here on the RecTrade? Also understand apparently there was no such case during the last 2+ years with Turtle EUR.
    Could you please clarify?

    Brgds
    Darius

    • Andrea Lanza Andrea Lanza

      Hello,
      as I said in my article http://www.andrea-lanza.it/blog/2018/06/04/a-few-notes-about-turtle-eur-strategy/ I don’t have a magic wand.
      The Recovery Trade is the key for the Turtle EUR strategy and you can not do without it.
      I am confident that in 10 years of backtest and in 2 and a half years of real trading it never happened that the recovery would fail.
      But since what has not happened in the past can always happen in the future the only thing I can do is to stop manually the initial trade and the recovery trade when the whole drawdown will be approximately 30%
      This value has never reached in my backtest, so if this were to happen it, is clear that there would be no possibility of recovery and therefore the only solution would be to manually close the operations.
      I recommend to all of my follower to use Multiplier value = 1 (the same risk level for Turtle) and for big accounts, to withdraw earnings every months to avoid that the accounts growing too much.

      Regards
      Andrea Lanza

  13. Mac Stef Mac Stef

    This Recovery processed quiet smooth. But there were heavier ones. Oct 2017 for example. The main aspect of choosing a multiplier is not the gain, but the chance to survive drawdown phases with revovery trades. Small-Balance-Accounts can gamble with high multipliers with high risk of total loss, cause they dont have to survive longterm, only long enough to armortise (after that everything more is fun, but fleeting). Actually, 30% DD was maximum. With this, a multiplier of 3.0 could enable maximum gain. But just imagine, the DD reaches a value of 40%. 40%x3.0 = 120%=margin call. Once, this will happen. So if you want to travel longterm and high-balanced with our friend Andrea, use low multipliers or at least 1.0. one successful year with turtle gains about 30%. One crash with turtle causes 30% loss and you can continue. So choose multiplier 1.0, survice one year an be in profit longterm.

  14. Joe Joe

    Hi Andrea,
    Thank you for your conservative trade system. It is acceptable to lost 30% if recovery trade reach 30% DD and it will be closed manually. During Brexit Event from now till March next year. Will you be able to close in case of GBPUSD flash crash happen like in October 2016. Can we survive?

    Thanks
    Joe

  15. Darius Darius

    Dear Andrea and others,

    Can you please share your experience what you actually earn in the end percentage wise after brokers commission, slippage, swap and other charges? Presume it cannot be the back to back as shown in MyFxbook..
    I have been following Turtle for a month already and each trade my broker (FXOpen) opens is couple pips higher or lower (due to slippage) and having in mind that this strategy is not rich pipwise in the end I end up with very low numbers or even a loss even if the original Turtle trade was closed with some profit. (e.g the last trade on 28th Sept). Does it mean that one must have very big account or multiplier of more than 1 or how does it work? I have an account of eur 3K and today after 1 month trading I have a loss of 2 eur. even though the original Turtle on Myfxbook shows a profit of abt 0.88 pct..

    Pleased to hear your thoughts

    Thanks

    Brgds

  16. Mac Stef Mac Stef

    I have that slippage too. Its a problen when turtle has positive trades with up to 2 pips. Then i have a small loss. A higher multiplierer would not chance this. It can only compensate this when there are win trades with more positive pips. But it means higher loss in case of crash. If turtle makes 3 % a month, i would make 2-2,5% maybe. Slippage IS a problem!
    I’d be interested in someones expierience that uses Alpari too.

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